Final Poliforecast: Conservative Majority: 30
So, this is the final Poliforecast. I have an 8 point lead for the Tories, which is at the lower end of the most recent polls, and is just enough for a comfortable majority – with some caveats.
Click here. You will see several tabs, the overall tax and then the underlying data showing the percentage expected and the actual number of votes forecast.
It’s been developed over the course of the campaign, taking into account the Best for Britain MRP, the Datapraxis Modelling, Deltapoll and other constituency specific polling, the Bookmakers, and both Yougov MRPs, giving more weight to the MRPs, and giving more weight still to the MRPs that were produced later – Yougov MRP being the last. So the biggest single factor is the latest Yougov MRP, but there will still be latent factors remaining from previous work. For the latest Yougov MRP I have looked at any seats where my own model was outside the MOE and re-evaluated my analysis – not necessarily changed it to agree, it’s just “factored in”. South Cambridgeshire, for instance – even factoring in the MRP, I don’t see the Lib Dems taking the seat. Chingford, Iain Duncan Smith’s seat, I have as falling to Labour. So there are a few differences - where I was within the Yougov MOE, however, I’ve left it.
I have also made “anecdotal adjustments” when something happens which modelling alone won’t pick up – the Brexit Party candidate supporting the Conservatives in Lincoln and Redcar for instance. There is a focus here on those seats which are most likely to change. So I have looked at about 200 seats in some detail, with the rest based more purely on modelling. Both in Derby North and West Brom East I have an anecdotal adjustment on high-profile independents which is at significant odds with the Yougov MRP – although I don’t think either will make a difference to the ultimate destination of the seat.
It won’t be 100% correct, but you may be able to gauge quite early on whether the polls have predicted the direction of the election accurately.
Lib Dem: 12
Plaid Cymru: 1
Lib Dem: 16
Plaid Cymru: 4
Conservative Overall Majority: 30
This means the Conservatives gaining 20 seats from 2017. If you look at the majorities involved for those seats you are looking at a total of 37000 votes. Whether the Conservatives have their majority may very well depend on what just 37000 people decide to do.
Also, a point I consistently make. There are several pollsters and political experts - not a single reputable forecaster, despite quite a wide range of forecasts, is expecting the Brexit Party to gain any seats. According to my figures, they will accumulate 900,000 votes. Contrast that with the SNP who will get, roughly, 1,150,000 votes and 43 seats. The voting system is clearly inequitable, in that regard.
Some people vote for parties on principle, and will do so whether they expect to win or not. The Green Party will pick up votes in nearly 500 constituencies – but no-one expects them to win more than 1. 2 at a significant and unexpected push. Democracy can be as much about making your statement, and making sure you win.
Tactically, of course, if you were trying to block the Tories, for example, you wouldn’t generally turn to the Greens to do it. If people wish to vote for the Brexit Party on principle, like every other party choice, why not? About 30% of people will stay at home altogether on Thursday – at least you have taken part in the process. However, like with the Greens, if to achieve your democratic objective you require your party to win a seat – the Brexit Party has the worst return seat per vote ratio of any party.
Try to enjoy the day, and let’s all hope for a good outcome. Good luck everyone!