Previously Politax advised that the Conservatives and the Brexit Party should have a formal/informal pact, where the Conservatives stand aside (or not campaign, depending on the impact of election rules) in at least 78 seats giving the Brexit Party a clear shot, with the Brexit Party giving the Conservatives a clear shot everywhere else. This is still the most assured route to achieve Brexit.
Unfortunately, neither party seem willing to entertain any kind of pact, and the Brexit Party are fighting the Tories on the narrative that the Withdrawal Agreement is not Brexit. The puritanical approach plays well to the audiences on Nigel Farage’s campaign trail but it is a high-risk “all or nothing” strategy with “nothing” now a distinctly plausible outcome.
Maximising the Brexit Party vote is not a good strategy – without a strategy the Brexit Party can receive 6.5million votes and not win a single seat.
My view is that a Conservative majority Government is still the most credible means to Brexit. Imperfect though the WA is, at this juncture it still represents the most effective means to achieve Brexit. A Labour Government, backed up by either the SNP or the Lib Dems or both cancels Brexit. It won’t be visited again as an issue for at least a decade, and quite possibly never. Not only will Brexit be cancelled but under a remain Government integration will continue and our extrication will be more complicated than it is now. It will never be easier to leave the European Union than right now.
In view of that, I’ve reassessed the constituencies, reducing the number of seats winnable by the Brexit Party.
I have looked at the EU Ref results in 2016, results for 2017 GE, and considered the results for the EP in 2019. I have also looked at other predictions by Best for Britain MRP and oneuk.org etc, amongst others. A note of caution about oneuk.org. It recommends voting for the Brexit Party in 275 seats, which is absurd. It also recommends we vote Conservative in 351 seats, 48 of which are unwinnable. Following oneuk.org would not lead to a majority Conservative Government and would likely lead to a Corbyn PM. It may lead to maximising the Brexit Party vote, but to the detriment of the wider Brexit movement.
My recommended vote is designed to return a majority Conservative Government, with potential for some Brexit seats if possible. It should be noted that my current central projection for Brexit Party seats is 1. Barnsley East has got a great chance of going for the Brexit Party – if Conservatives can be persuaded to give them support. Leave.eu will have a tactical voting app which, depending on what it says, will probably change everything!
Anyway:
If you want Brexit and either like the new Withdrawal Agreement the below list is for you.
If you want Brexit, don’t like the WA but think it’s the best way we can realistically achieve
Brexit the below list is for you.
If you just want to maximise the Brexit Party vote this list is not for you.
If you don’t want Brexit, why did you even make it this far?
By all means suggest, either here or on twitter, any changes – but give a reason why. If there is local polling I am not aware of, for example.
Things to note.
I’ve given Neath to the Brexit Party, despite the Best for Britain MRP putting the Conservatives closer to Labour – I just think support for the Conservatives is going to have its limits there. Similar story in Makerfield – the idea that it’s going to be a Conservative seat seems a little far-fetched whatever the MRP says! Also, I originally had Brexiteers in West Bromwich East voting for George Galloway, but with Tom Watson standing down I have returned it to a Conservative target.
Anyway, this is the list. Probably the least technologically advanced presentation you will see in the entire campaign. It’s just a list of who to vote for. That’s it. Starting with the key battlegrounds. Nothing for Chorley - Speaker's seat.
Vote Conservative - DO NOT VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE!
Aberconwy
Aberdeen South
Aldershot
Altrincham and Sale West
Alyn and Deeside
Amber Valley
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Ashfield
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banbury
Banff and Buchan
Barrow and Furness
Basingstoke
Bassetlaw
Bath
Batley and Spen
Battersea
Beaconsfield*
Bedford
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Bexleyheath and Crayford
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Blackpool South
Bolsover
Bolton North East
Bolton West
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
Bradford South
Brecon and Radnorshire
Bridgend
Bristol North West
Bromley and Chislehurst
Broxtowe
Burnley
Burton
Bury North
Bury South
Calder Valley
Camborne and Redruth
Cannock Chase
Canterbury
Cardiff North
Carlisle
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carshalton and Wallington
Central Ayrshire
Chatham and Aylesford
Cheadle
Chelmsford
Chelsea and Fulham
Cheltenham
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Cities of London and Westminster
Cleethorpes
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Colchester
Colne Valley
Congleton
Copeland
Corby
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Croydon South
Dagenham and Rainham
Darlington
Dartford
Delyn
Derby North
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Doncaster Central
Dover
Dudley North
Dudley South
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Devon
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
East Worthing and Shoreham
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Eddisbury
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South West
Elmet and Rothwell
Enfield, Southgate
Erewash
Falkirk
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Finchley and Golders Green
Forest of Dean
Gedling
Gillingham and Rainham
Gloucester
Gordon
Gower
Gravesham
Great Grimsby
Great Yarmouth
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Halifax
Harborough
Harlow
Harrow East
Hastings and Rye
Hazel Grove
Hemel Hempstead
Hemsworth
Hendon
Hexham
High Peak
Hitchin and Harpenden
Huntingdon
Hyndburn
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Ipswich
Keighley
Kensington
Kettering
Kingston and Surbiton
Kingswood
Lanark and Hamilton East
Lewes
Lincoln
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Loughborough
Macclesfield
Mansfield
Mid Derbyshire
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Monmouth
Moray
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Morley and Outwood
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newport East
North Ayrshire and Arran
North Cornwall
North Devon
North East Derbyshire
North East Somerset
North Norfolk
North Swindon
North Thanet
North Warwickshire
North West Leicestershire
Northampton North
Northampton South
Norwich North
Nuneaton
Ochil and South Perthshire
Oxford West and Abingdon
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Pendle
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Perth and North Perthshire
Peterborough
Plymouth, Moor View
Pontypridd
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Pudsey
Putney
Reading East
Reading West
Redditch
Ribble Valley
Richmond Park
Rochester and Strood
Rochford and Southend East
Rossendale and Darwen
Rother Valley
Rugby
Rushcliffe
Scarborough and Whitby
Scunthorpe
Selby and Ainsty
Sherwood
Shipley
Shrewsbury and Atcham
South Basildon and East Thurrock
South Cambridgeshire
South Derbyshire
South Dorset
South East Cambridgeshire
South Ribble
South Swindon
South Thanet
Southampton, Itchen
Southend West
Southport
St Albans
St Austell and Newquay
St Ives
Stafford
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stalybridge and Hyde
Stevenage
Stirling
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent South
Stourbridge
Stroud
Sunderland Central
Sutton and Cheam
Telford
The Wrekin
Thornbury and Yate
Thurrock
Truro and Falmouth
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Wakefield
Walsall North
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Watford
Waveney
Weaver Vale
Wellingborough
Wells
Welwyn Hatfield
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
West Bromwich East
West Bromwich West
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Weston-Super-Mare
Wimbledon
Winchester
Wirral West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Worcester
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Worthing West
Wrexham
Wycombe
Wyre and Preston North
Yeovil
Ynys Môn
York Outer
Vote Brexit Party - DO NOT VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE!
Aberavon
Ashton-under-Lyne
Barnsley Central
Barnsley East
Blaenau Gwent
Blaydon
Caerphilly
Cynon Valley
Denton and Reddish
Doncaster North
Easington
Gateshead
Halton
Hartlepool*
Houghton and Sunderland South
Islwyn
Jarrow
Kingston upon Hull East
Kingston upon Hull North
Leeds East
Makerfield
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Middlesbrough
Neath
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
North Durham
North Tyneside
Ogmore
Rhondda
Rotherham
Sheffield South East
Sheffield, Heeley
South Shields
St Helens North
St Helens South and Whiston
Swansea East
Torfaen
Washington and Sunderland West
Wentworth and Dearne
Wigan
Vote Conservative, but not a key target
Aberdeen North
Airdrie and Shotts
Birmingham, Edgbaston
Blyth Valley
Brentford and Isleworth
Brighton, Kemptown
Bristol East
Bristol South
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cardiff South and Penarth
Cardiff West
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Ceredigion
City of Chester
City of Durham
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Dundee East
Dunfermline and West Fife
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Ealing Central and Acton
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Eltham
Enfield North
Erith and Thamesmead
Exeter
Hampstead and Kilburn
Harrow West
Heywood and Middleton
Huddersfield
Ilford North
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Leicester West
Livingston
Luton North
Luton South
Midlothian
Newport West
North East Fife
North West Durham
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Sedgefield
Sefton Central
Sheffield, Hallam
Southampton, Test
Swansea West
Tooting
Twickenham
Tynemouth
Walsall South
Warrington North
Westminster North
Wirral South
Vote Brexit - But not a key target
Barking
Birmingham, Erdington
Birmingham, Northfield
Birmingham, Yardley
Blackburn
Bolton South East
Bradford East
Chesterfield
Coventry North East
Derby South
Ellesmere Port and Neston
Feltham and Heston
Hayes and Harlington
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle
Leigh
Llanelli
Nottingham North
Oldham West and Royton
Preston
Redcar
Rochdale
Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough
Stockton North
Wansbeck
Warley
West Lancashire
Wolverhampton South East
Vote Conservative, but should be safe anyway
Aldridge-Brownhills
Arundel and South Downs
Ashford
Aylesbury
Basildon and Billericay
Beckenham
Berwick-upon-Tweed
Beverley and Holderness
Bexhill and Battle
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Boston and Skegness
Bosworth
Bracknell
Braintree
Brentwood and Ongar
Bridgwater and West Somerset
Brigg and Goole
Broadland
Bromsgrove
Broxbourne
Buckingham
Bury St Edmunds
Castle Point
Central Devon
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Charnwood
Chesham and Amersham
Chichester
Chippenham
Christchurch
Clacton
Daventry
Derbyshire Dales
Devizes
East Hampshire
East Surrey
East Yorkshire
Epping Forest
Epsom and Ewell
Esher and Walton
Fareham
Faversham and Mid Kent
Folkestone and Hythe
Fylde
Gainsborough
Gosport
Grantham and Stamford
Guildford
Haltemprice and Howden
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Harwich and North Essex
Havant
Henley
Hereford and South Herefordshire
Hertford and Stortford
Hertsmere
Hornchurch and Upminster
Horsham
Isle of Wight
Kenilworth and Southam
Lichfield
Louth and Horncastle
Ludlow
Maidenhead
Maidstone and The Weald
Maldon
Meon Valley
Meriden
Mid Bedfordshire
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Mid Norfolk
Mid Sussex
Mid Worcestershire
Mole Valley
Montgomeryshire
New Forest East
New Forest West
Newark
Newbury
Newton Abbot
North Dorset
North East Bedfordshire
North East Cambridgeshire
North East Hampshire
North East Hertfordshire
North Herefordshire
North Shropshire
North Somerset
North West Cambridgeshire
North West Hampshire
North West Norfolk
North Wiltshire
Old Bexley and Sidcup
Orpington
Penrith and The Border
Poole
Rayleigh and Wickford
Reigate
Richmond (Yorks)
Romford
Romsey and Southampton North
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Runnymede and Weybridge
Rutland and Melton
Saffron Walden
Salisbury
Sevenoaks
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Skipton and Ripon
Sleaford and North Hykeham
Solihull
Somerton and Frome
South East Cornwall
South Holland and The Deepings
South Leicestershire
South Norfolk
South Northamptonshire
South Staffordshire
South Suffolk
South West Bedfordshire
South West Devon
South West Hertfordshire
South West Norfolk
South West Surrey
South West Wiltshire
Spelthorne
Stone
Stratford-on-Avon
Suffolk Coastal
Surrey Heath
Sutton Coldfield
Tamworth
Tatton
Taunton Deane
Tewkesbury
The Cotswolds
Thirsk and Malton
Tiverton and Honiton
Tonbridge and Malling
Torbay
Torridge and West Devon
Totnes
Tunbridge Wells
Wantage
Wealden
West Dorset
West Suffolk
West Worcestershire
Windsor
Witham
Witney
Woking
Wokingham
Wyre Forest
DUP
Belfast East
Belfast North
Belfast South
East Antrim
East Londonderry
Lagan Valley
North Antrim
North Down
South Antrim
Strangford
Upper Bann
Let's face it, it probably won't make any difference what we do - we won't win.
Arfon
Belfast West
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Bethnal Green and Bow
Birkenhead
Birmingham, Hall Green
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Birmingham, Ladywood
Birmingham, Perry Barr
Birmingham, Selly Oak
Blackley and Broughton
Bootle
Bradford West
Brent Central
Brent North
Brighton, Pavilion
Bristol West
Camberwell and Peckham
Cambridge
Cardiff Central
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Croydon North
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Dulwich and West Norwood
Dundee West
Ealing North
Ealing, Southall
East Dunbartonshire
East Ham
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh West
Edmonton
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Garston and Halewood
Glasgow Central
Glasgow East
Glasgow North
Glasgow North East
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glasgow South West
Glenrothes
Greenwich and Woolwich
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Hackney South and Shoreditch
Hammersmith
Holborn and St Pancras
Hornsey and Wood Green
Hove
Ilford South
Inverclyde
Islington North
Islington South and Finsbury
Knowsley
Leeds Central
Leeds North East
Leeds North West
Leeds West
Leicester East
Leicester South
Lewisham East
Lewisham West and Penge
Lewisham, Deptford
Leyton and Wanstead
Liverpool, Riverside
Liverpool, Walton
Liverpool, Wavertree
Liverpool, West Derby
Manchester Central
Manchester, Gorton
Manchester, Withington
Mid Ulster
Mitcham and Morden
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Newry and Armagh
Norwich South
Nottingham East
Nottingham South
Orkney and Shetland
Oxford East
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Poplar and Limehouse
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Salford and Eccles
Sheffield Central
Slough
South Down
Stockport
Streatham
Stretford and Urmston
Tottenham
Vauxhall
Wallasey
Walthamstow
West Dunbartonshire
West Ham
West Tyrone
Wythenshawe and Sale East
York Central
*Hartlepool changed to Brexit Party following Richard Tice's candidature.
As I say, please comment here or on twitter if you strongly feel a constituency should change category - stating your reasons.