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How Brexiteers Should Vote in Every Constituency

Updated: Nov 9, 2019



Previously Politax advised that the Conservatives and the Brexit Party should have a formal/informal pact, where the Conservatives stand aside (or not campaign, depending on the impact of election rules) in at least 78 seats giving the Brexit Party a clear shot, with the Brexit Party giving the Conservatives a clear shot everywhere else. This is still the most assured route to achieve Brexit.


Unfortunately, neither party seem willing to entertain any kind of pact, and the Brexit Party are fighting the Tories on the narrative that the Withdrawal Agreement is not Brexit. The puritanical approach plays well to the audiences on Nigel Farage’s campaign trail but it is a high-risk “all or nothing” strategy with “nothing” now a distinctly plausible outcome.


Maximising the Brexit Party vote is not a good strategy – without a strategy the Brexit Party can receive 6.5million votes and not win a single seat.


My view is that a Conservative majority Government is still the most credible means to Brexit. Imperfect though the WA is, at this juncture it still represents the most effective means to achieve Brexit. A Labour Government, backed up by either the SNP or the Lib Dems or both cancels Brexit. It won’t be visited again as an issue for at least a decade, and quite possibly never. Not only will Brexit be cancelled but under a remain Government integration will continue and our extrication will be more complicated than it is now. It will never be easier to leave the European Union than right now.


In view of that, I’ve reassessed the constituencies, reducing the number of seats winnable by the Brexit Party.


I have looked at the EU Ref results in 2016, results for 2017 GE, and considered the results for the EP in 2019. I have also looked at other predictions by Best for Britain MRP and oneuk.org etc, amongst others. A note of caution about oneuk.org. It recommends voting for the Brexit Party in 275 seats, which is absurd. It also recommends we vote Conservative in 351 seats, 48 of which are unwinnable. Following oneuk.org would not lead to a majority Conservative Government and would likely lead to a Corbyn PM. It may lead to maximising the Brexit Party vote, but to the detriment of the wider Brexit movement.


My recommended vote is designed to return a majority Conservative Government, with potential for some Brexit seats if possible. It should be noted that my current central projection for Brexit Party seats is 1. Barnsley East has got a great chance of going for the Brexit Party – if Conservatives can be persuaded to give them support. Leave.eu will have a tactical voting app which, depending on what it says, will probably change everything!


Anyway:


If you want Brexit and either like the new Withdrawal Agreement the below list is for you.


If you want Brexit, don’t like the WA but think it’s the best way we can realistically achieve

Brexit the below list is for you.


If you just want to maximise the Brexit Party vote this list is not for you.


If you don’t want Brexit, why did you even make it this far?


By all means suggest, either here or on twitter, any changes – but give a reason why. If there is local polling I am not aware of, for example.


Things to note.


I’ve given Neath to the Brexit Party, despite the Best for Britain MRP putting the Conservatives closer to Labour – I just think support for the Conservatives is going to have its limits there. Similar story in Makerfield – the idea that it’s going to be a Conservative seat seems a little far-fetched whatever the MRP says! Also, I originally had Brexiteers in West Bromwich East voting for George Galloway, but with Tom Watson standing down I have returned it to a Conservative target.


Anyway, this is the list. Probably the least technologically advanced presentation you will see in the entire campaign. It’s just a list of who to vote for. That’s it. Starting with the key battlegrounds. Nothing for Chorley - Speaker's seat.


Vote Conservative - DO NOT VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE!


Aberconwy

Aberdeen South

Aldershot

Altrincham and Sale West

Alyn and Deeside

Amber Valley

Angus

Argyll and Bute

Ashfield

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Banbury

Banff and Buchan

Barrow and Furness

Basingstoke

Bassetlaw

Bath

Batley and Spen

Battersea

Beaconsfield*

Bedford

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Bishop Auckland

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Blackpool South

Bolsover

Bolton North East

Bolton West

Bournemouth East

Bournemouth West

Bradford South

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend

Bristol North West

Bromley and Chislehurst

Broxtowe

Burnley

Burton

Bury North

Bury South

Calder Valley

Camborne and Redruth

Cannock Chase

Canterbury

Cardiff North

Carlisle

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Carshalton and Wallington

Central Ayrshire

Chatham and Aylesford

Cheadle

Chelmsford

Chelsea and Fulham

Cheltenham

Chingford and Woodford Green

Chipping Barnet

Cities of London and Westminster

Cleethorpes

Clwyd South

Clwyd West

Colchester

Colne Valley

Congleton

Copeland

Corby

Crawley

Crewe and Nantwich

Croydon Central

Croydon South

Dagenham and Rainham

Darlington

Dartford

Delyn

Derby North

Dewsbury

Don Valley

Doncaster Central

Dover

Dudley North

Dudley South

Dumfries and Galloway

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

East Devon

East Lothian

East Renfrewshire

East Worthing and Shoreham

Eastbourne

Eastleigh

Eddisbury

Edinburgh North and Leith

Edinburgh South West

Elmet and Rothwell

Enfield, Southgate

Erewash

Falkirk

Filton and Bradley Stoke

Finchley and Golders Green

Forest of Dean

Gedling

Gillingham and Rainham

Gloucester

Gordon

Gower

Gravesham

Great Grimsby

Great Yarmouth

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Halifax

Harborough

Harlow

Harrow East

Hastings and Rye

Hazel Grove

Hemel Hempstead

Hemsworth

Hendon

Hexham

High Peak

Hitchin and Harpenden

Huntingdon

Hyndburn

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Ipswich

Keighley

Kensington

Kettering

Kingston and Surbiton

Kingswood

Lanark and Hamilton East

Lewes

Lincoln

Linlithgow and East Falkirk

Loughborough

Macclesfield

Mansfield

Mid Derbyshire

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland

Milton Keynes North

Milton Keynes South

Monmouth

Moray

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Morley and Outwood

Newcastle upon Tyne North

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Newport East

North Ayrshire and Arran

North Cornwall

North Devon

North East Derbyshire

North East Somerset

North Norfolk

North Swindon

North Thanet

North Warwickshire

North West Leicestershire

Northampton North

Northampton South

Norwich North

Nuneaton

Ochil and South Perthshire

Oxford West and Abingdon

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

Pendle

Penistone and Stocksbridge

Perth and North Perthshire

Peterborough

Plymouth, Moor View

Pontypridd

Portsmouth North

Portsmouth South

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Pudsey

Putney

Reading East

Reading West

Redditch

Ribble Valley

Richmond Park

Rochester and Strood

Rochford and Southend East

Rossendale and Darwen

Rother Valley

Rugby

Rushcliffe

Scarborough and Whitby

Scunthorpe

Selby and Ainsty

Sherwood

Shipley

Shrewsbury and Atcham

South Basildon and East Thurrock

South Cambridgeshire

South Derbyshire

South Dorset

South East Cambridgeshire

South Ribble

South Swindon

South Thanet

Southampton, Itchen

Southend West

Southport

St Albans

St Austell and Newquay

St Ives

Stafford

Staffordshire Moorlands

Stalybridge and Hyde

Stevenage

Stirling

Stockton South

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Stoke-on-Trent North

Stoke-on-Trent South

Stourbridge

Stroud

Sunderland Central

Sutton and Cheam

Telford

The Wrekin

Thornbury and Yate

Thurrock

Truro and Falmouth

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Vale of Clwyd

Vale of Glamorgan

Wakefield

Walsall North

Warrington South

Warwick and Leamington

Watford

Waveney

Weaver Vale

Wellingborough

Wells

Welwyn Hatfield

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

West Bromwich East

West Bromwich West

Westmorland and Lonsdale

Weston-Super-Mare

Wimbledon

Winchester

Wirral West

Wolverhampton North East

Wolverhampton South West

Worcester

Workington

Worsley and Eccles South

Worthing West

Wrexham

Wycombe

Wyre and Preston North

Yeovil

Ynys Môn

York Outer



Vote Brexit Party - DO NOT VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE!


Aberavon

Ashton-under-Lyne

Barnsley Central

Barnsley East

Blaenau Gwent

Blaydon

Caerphilly

Cynon Valley

Denton and Reddish

Doncaster North

Easington

Gateshead

Halton

Hartlepool*

Houghton and Sunderland South

Islwyn

Jarrow

Kingston upon Hull East

Kingston upon Hull North

Leeds East

Makerfield

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

Middlesbrough

Neath

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford

North Durham

North Tyneside

Ogmore

Rhondda

Rotherham

Sheffield South East

Sheffield, Heeley

South Shields

St Helens North

St Helens South and Whiston

Swansea East

Torfaen

Washington and Sunderland West

Wentworth and Dearne

Wigan



Vote Conservative, but not a key target


Aberdeen North

Airdrie and Shotts

Birmingham, Edgbaston

Blyth Valley

Brentford and Isleworth

Brighton, Kemptown

Bristol East

Bristol South

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Ceredigion

City of Chester

City of Durham

Coventry North West

Coventry South

Dundee East

Dunfermline and West Fife

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Ealing Central and Acton

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

Eltham

Enfield North

Erith and Thamesmead

Exeter

Hampstead and Kilburn

Harrow West

Heywood and Middleton

Huddersfield

Ilford North

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Leicester West

Livingston

Luton North

Luton South

Midlothian

Newport West

North East Fife

North West Durham

Oldham East and Saddleworth

Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Sedgefield

Sefton Central

Sheffield, Hallam

Southampton, Test

Swansea West

Tooting

Twickenham

Tynemouth

Walsall South

Warrington North

Westminster North

Wirral South




Vote Brexit - But not a key target


Barking

Birmingham, Erdington

Birmingham, Northfield

Birmingham, Yardley

Blackburn

Bolton South East

Bradford East

Chesterfield

Coventry North East

Derby South

Ellesmere Port and Neston

Feltham and Heston

Hayes and Harlington

Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle

Leigh

Llanelli

Nottingham North

Oldham West and Royton

Preston

Redcar

Rochdale

Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough

Stockton North

Wansbeck

Warley

West Lancashire

Wolverhampton South East


Vote Conservative, but should be safe anyway


Aldridge-Brownhills

Arundel and South Downs

Ashford

Aylesbury

Basildon and Billericay

Beckenham

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Beverley and Holderness

Bexhill and Battle

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Boston and Skegness

Bosworth

Bracknell

Braintree

Brentwood and Ongar

Bridgwater and West Somerset

Brigg and Goole

Broadland

Bromsgrove

Broxbourne

Buckingham

Bury St Edmunds

Castle Point

Central Devon

Central Suffolk and North Ipswich

Charnwood

Chesham and Amersham

Chichester

Chippenham

Christchurch

Clacton

Daventry

Derbyshire Dales

Devizes

East Hampshire

East Surrey

East Yorkshire

Epping Forest

Epsom and Ewell

Esher and Walton

Fareham

Faversham and Mid Kent

Folkestone and Hythe

Fylde

Gainsborough

Gosport

Grantham and Stamford

Guildford

Haltemprice and Howden

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Harwich and North Essex

Havant

Henley

Hereford and South Herefordshire

Hertford and Stortford

Hertsmere

Hornchurch and Upminster

Horsham

Isle of Wight

Kenilworth and Southam

Lichfield

Louth and Horncastle

Ludlow

Maidenhead

Maidstone and The Weald

Maldon

Meon Valley

Meriden

Mid Bedfordshire

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Mid Norfolk

Mid Sussex

Mid Worcestershire

Mole Valley

Montgomeryshire

New Forest East

New Forest West

Newark

Newbury

Newton Abbot

North Dorset

North East Bedfordshire

North East Cambridgeshire

North East Hampshire

North East Hertfordshire

North Herefordshire

North Shropshire

North Somerset

North West Cambridgeshire

North West Hampshire

North West Norfolk

North Wiltshire

Old Bexley and Sidcup

Orpington

Penrith and The Border

Poole

Rayleigh and Wickford

Reigate

Richmond (Yorks)

Romford

Romsey and Southampton North

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

Runnymede and Weybridge

Rutland and Melton

Saffron Walden

Salisbury

Sevenoaks

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Skipton and Ripon

Sleaford and North Hykeham

Solihull

Somerton and Frome

South East Cornwall

South Holland and The Deepings

South Leicestershire

South Norfolk

South Northamptonshire

South Staffordshire

South Suffolk

South West Bedfordshire

South West Devon

South West Hertfordshire

South West Norfolk

South West Surrey

South West Wiltshire

Spelthorne

Stone

Stratford-on-Avon

Suffolk Coastal

Surrey Heath

Sutton Coldfield

Tamworth

Tatton

Taunton Deane

Tewkesbury

The Cotswolds

Thirsk and Malton

Tiverton and Honiton

Tonbridge and Malling

Torbay

Torridge and West Devon

Totnes

Tunbridge Wells

Wantage

Wealden

West Dorset

West Suffolk

West Worcestershire

Windsor

Witham

Witney

Woking

Wokingham

Wyre Forest


DUP


Belfast East

Belfast North

Belfast South

East Antrim

East Londonderry

Lagan Valley

North Antrim

North Down

South Antrim

Strangford

Upper Bann


Let's face it, it probably won't make any difference what we do - we won't win.


Arfon

Belfast West

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Bethnal Green and Bow

Birkenhead

Birmingham, Hall Green

Birmingham, Hodge Hill

Birmingham, Ladywood

Birmingham, Perry Barr

Birmingham, Selly Oak

Blackley and Broughton

Bootle

Bradford West

Brent Central

Brent North

Brighton, Pavilion

Bristol West

Camberwell and Peckham

Cambridge

Cardiff Central

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Croydon North

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Dulwich and West Norwood

Dundee West

Ealing North

Ealing, Southall

East Dunbartonshire

East Ham

Edinburgh East

Edinburgh South

Edinburgh West

Edmonton

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Foyle

Garston and Halewood

Glasgow Central

Glasgow East

Glasgow North

Glasgow North East

Glasgow North West

Glasgow South

Glasgow South West

Glenrothes

Greenwich and Woolwich

Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Hackney South and Shoreditch

Hammersmith

Holborn and St Pancras

Hornsey and Wood Green

Hove

Ilford South

Inverclyde

Islington North

Islington South and Finsbury

Knowsley

Leeds Central

Leeds North East

Leeds North West

Leeds West

Leicester East

Leicester South

Lewisham East

Lewisham West and Penge

Lewisham, Deptford

Leyton and Wanstead

Liverpool, Riverside

Liverpool, Walton

Liverpool, Wavertree

Liverpool, West Derby

Manchester Central

Manchester, Gorton

Manchester, Withington

Mid Ulster

Mitcham and Morden

Motherwell and Wishaw

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Newcastle upon Tyne Central

Newcastle upon Tyne East

Newry and Armagh

Norwich South

Nottingham East

Nottingham South

Orkney and Shetland

Oxford East

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Poplar and Limehouse

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Salford and Eccles

Sheffield Central

Slough

South Down

Stockport

Streatham

Stretford and Urmston

Tottenham

Vauxhall

Wallasey

Walthamstow

West Dunbartonshire

West Ham

West Tyrone

Wythenshawe and Sale East

York Central


*Hartlepool changed to Brexit Party following Richard Tice's candidature.



As I say, please comment here or on twitter if you strongly feel a constituency should change category - stating your reasons.

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