The polls have tightened significantly – last week we were looking at a Conservative majority of 107 – now we're looking at just 32 in this week’s Poliforecast. I have the Tories on 42, Lab on 34 and LD on 13. If you put that information in to Electoral Calculus they have it tighter still at 24. The difference is I have the Conservatives taking Colne Valley, Stroud and Warwick and Leamington, and on current polling feel that is accurate. All the data is here: https://static.wixstatic.com/ugd/a3731b_220eda9b7c064910bc7af8aeebba1955.xlsx
As ever, if you feel your constituency is not represented accurately, please let me know. The model is multi-factored, based on Poll of Polls, with extra weighting given to mega polls like Yougov’s and Best of Britain’s MRP, plus any anecdotal constituency-specific adjustments.
This is just a forecast based on current information – it’s not a prediction. It is quite likely the polls will narrow further, but I don’t think Momentum are making the same inroads as they did in 2017. That said, if Labour could climb another 2/3% we are fast approaching hung Parliament territory.
The Brexit Party are polling at 3-4% nationally – but where they are standing they are averaging 7% in the Politax Model. The Conservative hopes could well lie on, as the Labour vote strengthens, the Brexit vote will switch to the Conservatives.
There isn’t any reputable analysis, by any method, showing the Brexit Party gaining a single seat. The Brexit Party are third even in the seats where they are most likely to do well – Hartlepool and Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle. That conclusion is borne out with the bookmakers too – with the Brexit Party currently 2/9 to get zero seats. If you put £10 on the Brexit Party getting anything other than zero they will payout £40 should the Brexit Party gain a single seat. One million people are still saying they will vote for the Brexit Party.
Based on this, Politax no longer recommends any tactical voting. All the data available from every reputable source points to one undeniable conclusion - if you want Brexit, in any form whatsoever, you can only vote Conservative.