The 93 Seats Which Could Make Or Break Brexit

The next General Election looks imminent and it will be an election like no other in living memory. Dominated by Brexit, and with party lines blurred, even the great

Professor John Curtice will be left scratching his head trying to predict which way it’s going to go.

From the current polling, it’s possible we’re looking at a Conservative majority, but there’s still the prospect of another hung Parliament. A gaff or two in the election campaign and you could even be looking at a Labour minority Government, possibly helped by votes from the SNP and/or the Liberal Democrats. As scenarios for Brexit go, that is the one most likely to kill Brexit stone dead.

Consistently in the polls, “the Brexit Vote”, Conservatives plus the Brexit Party, will, if combined, produce a substantial majority. The biggest threat to Brexit is if they are not combined they will actually cancel each other out. Standing against each other for the sake of party loyalty is, quite obviously from any dispassionate analysis, counter-productive.

So Politax has analysed every seat and determined that 93 seats hold the key to Brexit. If these seats are handled with Brexit only in mind, “Brexit” will, one way or another, win the election.

First, the Brexit Party need to know the Conservatives are not going to stand aside in any Conservative seat, so they are out of the question. Secondly, the Brexit Party standing in seats which are not strongly pro-Brexit areas will take the more “generic”, non-Brexit, seats away from the Conservatives. Also, Conservative marginal targets are also out of the question. So if you’re wondering why Great Grimsby, with 69% vote for leave, isn’t mentioned, it’s because a 3.7% swing to the Tories wins the seat.

What we are looking at is seats which are strongly pro-Brexit and which the Conservatives are unlikely to win. As a rule of thumb, 55%+ pro-Brexit in 2016 and needing a 5%+ swing Labour to Conservatives are the seats in question.

If the seat is strongly in this area, it’s in the category of “Stand Aside, Tory!” So we’re talking Karl Turner in Hull East with 72.8% leave vote in 2016, and needing a 14.5% swing. Pure Brexit Party territory. The bulk of the seats, 78 in total, fall into this category. Some big names here too, including deputy leader Tom Watson in West Bromwich East, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell in Hayes and Harlington, Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Ed Miliband in Doncaster North.

Then we have places like Dagenham and Rainham, with a 70% pro-Brexit vote in 2016 but which need an unlikely, but possible, 5% swing to the Tories. With Jon Cruddas publicly stating that Brexit should now go ahead, the Tories will argue that they stand the better chance. There are 6 of these falling into the category of “Not so fast, Nige!”

Then you have those which are up for a little more negotiation – perhaps some local knowledge might tip the balance? Some of these the Brexit Party would certainly want to fight. Iain Wright’s Hartlepool, for example, with 69.5% pro-Brexit vote and needing a 9% swing is on the cusp of “Stand aside, Tory!” but, with 8 others, falls into a category of “Let’s talk”.

These are the only seats the Brexit Party should stand in. If the Conservatives offered a cabinet position for every 20 seats the Brexit Party gained, even if the Conservatives have a majority, the Brexit Party may well play ball.

Stand Aside, Tory!

Constituency & MP

Aberavon, Stephen Kinnock

Ashton-under-Lyne, Angela Rayner

Barking, Margaret Hodge

Barnsley Central, Dan Jarvis

Barnsley East, Stephanie Peacock

Batley and Spen, Tracy Brabin

Birmingham Erdington, Jack Dromey

Birmingham Northfield, Richard Burdon

Birmingham Yardley, Jess Phillips

Blackburn, Kate Hollern

Blaenau Gwent, Nick Smith

Blaydon, Liz Twist

Bolton South East, Yasmin Qureshi

Bradford East, Imran Hussain

Bradford South, Judith Cummins

Burnley, Julie Cooper

Caerphilly, Wayne David

Chesterfield, Toby Perkins

Coventry North East, Colleen Fletcher

Cynon Valley, Ann Clwyd

Denton and Reddish, Andrew Gwynne

Derby South, Margaret Beckett

Doncaster Central, Rosie Winterton

Doncaster North, Ed Miliband

Easington, Grahame Morris

Ellesmere Port and Neston, Justin Madders

Feltham and Heston, Seema Malhotra

Gateshead, Ian Mearns

Halton, Derek Twigg

Hayes and Harlington, John McDonnell

Hemsworth, Jon Trickett

Houghton and Sunderland South, Bridget Phillipson

Islwyn, Chris Evans

Jarrow, Stephen Hepburn

Kingston upon Hull East, Karl Turner

Kingston upon Hull North, Diana Johnson

Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle, Emma Hardy

Leeds East, Richard Burgon

Leigh, Jo Platt

Llanelli, Nia Griffith

Makerfield, Yvonne Fovargue

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Gerald Jones

Middlesbrough, Andy McDonald

Newcastle upon Tyne North, Catherine McKinnell

Newport East, Jessica Morden

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Yvette Cooper

North Durham, Kevan Jones

North Tyneside, Mary Glindon

Nottingham North, Alex Norris

Ogmore, Chris Elmore

Oldham West and Royton, Jim McMahon

Preston, Mark Hendrick

Redcar, Anna Turley

Rhondda, Chris Bryant

Rochdale, Tony Lloyd

Rotherham, Sarah Champion

Sheffield Hillsborough and Brightside, Gill Furniss

Sheffield South East, Clive Betts

Sheffield, Heeley, Louise Haigh

South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck

St Helens North, Conor McGinn

St Helens South and Whiston, Marie Rimmer

Stalybridge and Hyde, Jonathan Reynolds

Stockton North, Alex Cunningham

Sunderland Central, Julie Elliott

Swansea East, Carolyn Harris

Torfaen, Nick Thomas-Symonds

Wansbeck, Ian Lavery

Warley, John Spellar

Washington and Sunderland West, Sharon Hodgson

Wentworth and Dearne, John Healey

West Bromwich East, Tom Watson

West Bromwich West, Adrian Bailey

West Lancashire, Rosie Cooper

Wigan, Lisa Nandy

Wolverhampton North East, Emma Reynolds

Wolverhampton South East, Pat McFadden

Worsley and Eccles South, Barbara Keeley

Not so fast, Nige!

Constituency & MP

Alyn and Deeside, Mark Tami

Chorley, Lindsay Hoyle

Clwyd South, Susan Elan Jones

Dagenham and Rainham, Jon Cruddas

Don Valley, Caroline Flint

Stoke-on-Trent Central, Gareth Snell

Let’s Talk

Constituency & MP

Coventry North West, Geoffrey Robinson

Halifax, Holly Lynch

Hartlepool, Mike Hill

Heywood and Middleton, Liz McInnes

Hyndburn, Graham Jones

North West Durham, Laura Pidcock

Oldham East and Saddleworth, Debbie Abrahams

Sedgefield, Phil Wilson

Warrington North, Helen Jones

Should the Tories stand aside in these seats? Would doing so lose them seats overall? Are some seats missing you think should be included? Do fish know when it rains? Comment below, or see @politax3 on twitter.