The next General Election looks imminent and it will be an election like no other in living memory. Dominated by Brexit, and with party lines blurred, even the great
Professor John Curtice will be left scratching his head trying to predict which way it’s going to go.
From the current polling, it’s possible we’re looking at a Conservative majority, but there’s still the prospect of another hung Parliament. A gaff or two in the election campaign and you could even be looking at a Labour minority Government, possibly helped by votes from the SNP and/or the Liberal Democrats. As scenarios for Brexit go, that is the one most likely to kill Brexit stone dead.
Consistently in the polls, “the Brexit Vote”, Conservatives plus the Brexit Party, will, if combined, produce a substantial majority. The biggest threat to Brexit is if they are not combined they will actually cancel each other out. Standing against each other for the sake of party loyalty is, quite obviously from any dispassionate analysis, counter-productive.
So Politax has analysed every seat and determined that 93 seats hold the key to Brexit. If these seats are handled with Brexit only in mind, “Brexit” will, one way or another, win the election.
First, the Brexit Party need to know the Conservatives are not going to stand aside in any Conservative seat, so they are out of the question. Secondly, the Brexit Party standing in seats which are not strongly pro-Brexit areas will take the more “generic”, non-Brexit, seats away from the Conservatives. Also, Conservative marginal targets are also out of the question. So if you’re wondering why Great Grimsby, with 69% vote for leave, isn’t mentioned, it’s because a 3.7% swing to the Tories wins the seat.
What we are looking at is seats which are strongly pro-Brexit and which the Conservatives are unlikely to win. As a rule of thumb, 55%+ pro-Brexit in 2016 and needing a 5%+ swing Labour to Conservatives are the seats in question.
If the seat is strongly in this area, it’s in the category of “Stand Aside, Tory!” So we’re talking Karl Turner in Hull East with 72.8% leave vote in 2016, and needing a 14.5% swing. Pure Brexit Party territory. The bulk of the seats, 78 in total, fall into this category. Some big names here too, including deputy leader Tom Watson in West Bromwich East, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell in Hayes and Harlington, Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Ed Miliband in Doncaster North.
Then we have places like Dagenham and Rainham, with a 70% pro-Brexit vote in 2016 but which need an unlikely, but possible, 5% swing to the Tories. With Jon Cruddas publicly stating that Brexit should now go ahead, the Tories will argue that they stand the better chance. There are 6 of these falling into the category of “Not so fast, Nige!”
Then you have those which are up for a little more negotiation – perhaps some local knowledge might tip the balance? Some of these the Brexit Party would certainly want to fight. Iain Wright’s Hartlepool, for example, with 69.5% pro-Brexit vote and needing a 9% swing is on the cusp of “Stand aside, Tory!” but, with 8 others, falls into a category of “Let’s talk”.
These are the only seats the Brexit Party should stand in. If the Conservatives offered a cabinet position for every 20 seats the Brexit Party gained, even if the Conservatives have a majority, the Brexit Party may well play ball.
Stand Aside, Tory!
Constituency & MP
Aberavon, Stephen Kinnock
Ashton-under-Lyne, Angela Rayner
Barking, Margaret Hodge
Barnsley Central, Dan Jarvis
Barnsley East, Stephanie Peacock
Batley and Spen, Tracy Brabin
Birmingham Erdington, Jack Dromey
Birmingham Northfield, Richard Burdon
Birmingham Yardley, Jess Phillips
Blackburn, Kate Hollern
Blaenau Gwent, Nick Smith
Blaydon, Liz Twist
Bolton South East, Yasmin Qureshi
Bradford East, Imran Hussain
Bradford South, Judith Cummins
Burnley, Julie Cooper
Caerphilly, Wayne David
Chesterfield, Toby Perkins
Coventry North East, Colleen Fletcher
Cynon Valley, Ann Clwyd
Denton and Reddish, Andrew Gwynne
Derby South, Margaret Beckett
Doncaster Central, Rosie Winterton
Doncaster North, Ed Miliband
Easington, Grahame Morris
Ellesmere Port and Neston, Justin Madders
Feltham and Heston, Seema Malhotra
Gateshead, Ian Mearns
Halton, Derek Twigg
Hayes and Harlington, John McDonnell
Hemsworth, Jon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland South, Bridget Phillipson
Islwyn, Chris Evans
Jarrow, Stephen Hepburn
Kingston upon Hull East, Karl Turner
Kingston upon Hull North, Diana Johnson
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle, Emma Hardy
Leeds East, Richard Burgon
Leigh, Jo Platt
Llanelli, Nia Griffith
Makerfield, Yvonne Fovargue
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Gerald Jones
Middlesbrough, Andy McDonald
Newcastle upon Tyne North, Catherine McKinnell
Newport East, Jessica Morden
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Yvette Cooper
North Durham, Kevan Jones
North Tyneside, Mary Glindon
Nottingham North, Alex Norris
Ogmore, Chris Elmore
Oldham West and Royton, Jim McMahon
Preston, Mark Hendrick
Redcar, Anna Turley
Rhondda, Chris Bryant
Rochdale, Tony Lloyd
Rotherham, Sarah Champion
Sheffield Hillsborough and Brightside, Gill Furniss
Sheffield South East, Clive Betts
Sheffield, Heeley, Louise Haigh
South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck
St Helens North, Conor McGinn
St Helens South and Whiston, Marie Rimmer
Stalybridge and Hyde, Jonathan Reynolds
Stockton North, Alex Cunningham
Sunderland Central, Julie Elliott
Swansea East, Carolyn Harris
Torfaen, Nick Thomas-Symonds
Wansbeck, Ian Lavery
Warley, John Spellar
Washington and Sunderland West, Sharon Hodgson
Wentworth and Dearne, John Healey
West Bromwich East, Tom Watson
West Bromwich West, Adrian Bailey
West Lancashire, Rosie Cooper
Wigan, Lisa Nandy
Wolverhampton North East, Emma Reynolds
Wolverhampton South East, Pat McFadden
Worsley and Eccles South, Barbara Keeley
Not so fast, Nige!
Constituency & MP
Alyn and Deeside, Mark Tami
Chorley, Lindsay Hoyle
Clwyd South, Susan Elan Jones
Dagenham and Rainham, Jon Cruddas
Don Valley, Caroline Flint
Stoke-on-Trent Central, Gareth Snell
Let’s Talk
Constituency & MP
Coventry North West, Geoffrey Robinson
Halifax, Holly Lynch
Hartlepool, Mike Hill
Heywood and Middleton, Liz McInnes
Hyndburn, Graham Jones
North West Durham, Laura Pidcock
Oldham East and Saddleworth, Debbie Abrahams
Sedgefield, Phil Wilson
Warrington North, Helen Jones
Should the Tories stand aside in these seats? Would doing so lose them seats overall? Are some seats missing you think should be included? Do fish know when it rains? Comment below, or see @politax3 on twitter.